Archive: August, 2010

Hurricane Earl – Even More Objective Probability than the Markets

A few moments ago, CNBC broadcast a weather report showing the best and worst case scenarios for the potential left and right track of Hurricane Earl. They projected it will “brush the East Coast on Thursday”. Weather channels, however, are saying “Friday” is the H-day. Who’s right? There is literally no way to know – [...]

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The Real Probabilities of Trading

We all like to talk about knowing the probabilities … and then just sticking to them. Most of us like to harangue other traders for not doing so while finding it not so easy to do ourselves. It isn’t so easy for a number of reasons – 1. Whether you are conscious of it or [...]

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“Travesting” and the fC’s in decision making under uncertainty

Two new terms you will (eventually) read in this book I am feverishly working on. (It’s true – I am having a blast and really want nothing else but to be able to work on it… hence, my choice of the word feverishly): “Travesting” – meaning the combination of trading and investing that everyone needs [...]

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